Subjectivity

[Trader Question]

I am presently referring to an analysis of weekly and daily charts, emphasizing the value of the 5/9 line. To a large extent, but perhaps unwittingly, Ted/Charlie appear to imply that contained in this lesson (using 5/9 as an example) is the essence of the approach, and that mastery thru experience will allow one to prevail (incidently, I have used the "5/9" idea for some time, but called it a HLR or HLS, so am aware of its utility as a tool, confirmed by other parameters). This is difficult to swallow at this juncture, given the degree of subjectivity involved and the spectre of optimization that looms. As you must know yourself, one can draw these and many of the other 5 and 6 line variations all over the place and in so doing create confluence virtually anywhere you want. Which series the market will actually key off of is clear only retrospectively, and sometimes even then is a stretch. For example, you can have a 5/9 up on the weekly, transpose the level to daily and construct a 5/9 there (and/or others) that will correspond, but if price doesn't get there, you simply erase that 5/9 (or whatever) and put something there that does support the case (1-1,6-1,5-1, ...) and say it got close enough. Note that this has implications for bailing out as well. When do you know you're on the wrong side if you can keep drawing lines to buttress your present position?! The "held on the close" notion is particulary vexing (the whole idea of the lines, particularly the 5/9 exhaust, is to contain the range, right?!) There must be other elements that are being considered but are not being discussed in the present analysis because of the introductory nature of the material. Clearly, buy and sell decisions cannot be made on the basis of what has been presented so far. I guess this is why there are 26 more lessons!

D.A.
I understand, accept, resonate with the discretionary nature of this approach. However, the degree of subjectivity revealed to me so far is unnerving. With the ensuing lessons, I trust the interpretive aspects interweave to form a more definitive prognostication of what price will likely do. (Bill, a simple "yes, don't worry about it; I felt the same way, but as things progress, everything falls into place," will suffice if this is the case!).

Incidently, cudos if you were aboard for the snp moon launch

[pldot]

Well, yes, that is the case... I think you will find many more decision support tools available to you as you complete the course. There will always be room for discretion and that will always carry with it the possibility or error, but you will find things getting much, much more sophisticated and much more reliable and certain by the time you reach the end of the course.

[Trader Question]

You know I find the biggest problem with discretionary trading is the fact that the inevitable losses are always met with "what did I learn here?" In other words, there must be something I missed. This can be anathema to one's psychology. With mechanical systems, you just look at the losses as a statistical given. One is not inclined to jiggle with the approach. The system is static, out of my control. Mathematics will determine outcome. Discretionary, given the different mindset, compells one to refuse (unconconsciously perhaps) to accept this. Since it is discretionary, there must be an element I did not consider, something unique to this particular trading situation that I must ferit out and remember next time. This can lead to paralysis, of course. It is not easy to accept the losses as simply inevitable. This seems to get worse the better one's system. Mindset: it "shouldn't fail." It must be me.

D.A.

[pldot]

You're to early in the course for this tail biting to have much import. Suggest you review the psycho papers on the value of mechanical vs intellectual and emotional centers in trading.
Basically if you don't have a system/rules/understanding down pat and can execute mechanically, you will be eaten alive with your doubts, concerns, analysis/paralysis, and other psycho bugs. Getting it down pat means you have done the personal reasearch as examples in Lessons 4 (example only there, not the whole cake...). Bottom line, at the moment you should focus on the content of the Lessons and master it.