Hypothetical for a Long

[Trader Question]

I'm looking at the Dow this morning and on the daily I see a farout holding at 8570, a 5/9 up holding at the same level....a 5/9 up held 3 days ago and the live dot is coming up off the channel....on the weekly I see congestion entrance and a new block level holding around the 8600 level and on the monthly a 5/9 up held on close last month and the 1:1 zone is holding price currently this month...

Do I have a good argument for a long here? I'm not trading just hypothetical...I know you can't give trading advice. I'm concerned about the analysis.

A.O.

[pldot]

I can see why you're temped on the daily, and could certainly see daily pinging to the upside. But then again... on weekly is not congestion entrance but congestion action, and the lower confines of congestion reach back to the prior lows of a few weeks ago; the monthly is in a C-wave down and as yet shows no sign of abating; the 5/9 holding and the current monthly support at a nearby is a faint ray of hope if it continues, but the month is yet young and the down trend may continue in force. Hourly flow at this writing

[Trader Question]

On the EURUSD Daily (today Nov 12 2008) I see a confluence of support pouring into the 1.2450 area; namely the daily ebot, weekly ebot, daily nearby and daily further out, weekly nearby and monthly nearby....there are also a few trend lines holding in that area as well....for further confirmation there is a strong confines of congestion also preventing price from going lower at this time....if I look to the 60min for confirmation of my thesis I see that price has just crossed over the static pldot and the last couple of dots are pulling up off the main channel.

Is this a reasonable thought pattern for how a seasoned p&ler would look at it?

A.O.

[pldot]

Is a spot for pinging , would not plunge whole hog just yet. But your thoughts are correct, can dip in cautiously long in support only...