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Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:03 am
by Trader ???
Q.: Lesson 26, video 1.5, screen 97, sixth line from top says: "at the end of the fourth 30 minute bar, our trader sees 30 minute nearby resistance locate at the 30 minute pldot, which revealed that the daily pldot was pushing down." If we look back, on 2nd and 3rd bars from that day (6th and 7th bars from left) also have 30 minute resistance at 30 minute pldot. What is the difference between these two scenarios? Why bars 2 and 3 did not reveal that daily pldot is pushing down? H.B.
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:10 am
by pldot
Looks as if one was long on bar 1 of 5/05, and thus looking to see if continued up or no? Bars 1-2-3 show support strong, and nearby support moving closer to pldot, not a sign to go short. Nevertheless, could as you suggest have shorted at coalescence of daily/30 minute dot, but it is not a perfectly clear signal as a short. Flow on bars 1-2-3 more neutral than not, yet definitely not good down flow.
Inconclusive as to short or long trade at that point. Screen's trade to go short on bar 4 is also not the clearest or more convincing trade I have ever seen, but is logical enough. As bars 5-6-7 etc. proceed, the short becomes more compelling.....Had you not been short coming into this screen or on bar 2 of the screen, then staying short might have come more easily.....
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:21 am
by Trader ???
Please check if my analysis is right: Lesson 26, video 1.8, screen 123, "trader goes short in the 2nd hour since nearby hourly resistance is offered of the hourly pldot."
My read goes like this:
1. Hourly resistance at hourly pldot does not make it strong unless it is made stronger by daily resistance. In 2nd hour of the day, prices are in daily support. Shorting in support is not a good idea.
2. Daily is attempting dotted line setup, this can cause hourly to go into long congestion which is happening. So, we need to see evidence of hourly congestion exit down to short. For this, we need hourly resistance to show strengthening by moving down towards hourly pldot under daily ET, daily pldot or daily EB, houlrly pldots to open down etc., but as we see hourly pldot is going sideways. May be in last hour there was a chance to enter short because in previous bar, prices wet to hourly further out area which held on close, so next bar one can consider shorting anticipating exhaust (but that was also questionable).
What do you think? H.B.
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:25 am
by pldot
If anticipated daily direction is down which is was due to exhaust formation underway, then I can see why one would nibble at a short position, shorting hourly resistance. The questiion would be if shorting hourly resistance does the daily ET hold (which would mean a daily Cwave) or not, which would support the short concept. Your analysis presents a perfectly reasonable alternate entry strategy, a little less aggressive but acceptable nonetheless.
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:31 am
by Trader ???
Lesson 26, video 11, screen 183: On Thursday close was at or only tadbit above daily ET. Prices are in weekly resistance. As per criteria in an earlier lesson, for Friday (last bar on screen), we should place daily nearby resistance at daily ET and daily support at daily pldot, even if daily close was slightly above ET. Reason is that daily resistance is strong due to weekly resistance.
I do not understand why daily support in this screen is placed at daily ET. Am I missing something? H.B.
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:41 am
by pldot
No perfect answer on theis one. These nearby's were drawn in by hand before the software for automating them was created, so there is an element of subjectivity always present, and most especially so when the close is very close to the on-coming ET. Even now, when the computer would be entirely consistent, a pro with a lot of experience can and will adjust his placement of the nearby's in this situation, since a trader has a better sense of momentum that the computer does, and can fudge the number when that is appropriate. That is the case here.....It is perhaps analogous with the radiologist matching his reading of a piece of film against the computer's interpretation of the film. The computer might do a very good job in some cases but when it is a close call one would rather have a human involved. (Seems that I recall that radiology is fiddling with auto-reading of film, am I right?)
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:48 am
by Trader ???
Screen 225, 6th line from the top says: "The hourly block area at the start of the day is at the daily pldot, and this "can" be anticipated to be weak."
My Q.: Because of location of hourly block, we know that it is strong. Why in this particular situation, we anticipate it to be weak? In addition, we see that daily pldot has moved down for today, does it not indicate that it is still pushing down, it has not moved up yet? H.B.
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:06 am
by pldot
Regarding Lesson 26, screen 225.....No, an hourly block by itself does not cause anticipation that it will be strong. Here we are saying that support is anticipated to be strong (per previous screen) and thus the hourly block level (to the upside) anticipated to be weak.....but that does not neciessarily say that the block will give way instantly, or immediately.....all lines and levels can "have their day in court" as we say ...---strong daily support is causing the doted line to form, and thus the block...---dot moving down does not cause it to be strong resistance necesssarily.....else ther could never be the end of a trend if you think about it.....we're looking at hourly move against daily trend, thus hourly action will preceed daily action, etc., etc. Here we are seeing support form and if that is true then there will be an hourly move up, and this will eventually cause the dot to turn up....
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:24 am
by fairyanna
For the beginner, I presume it would be normal to go short right away as the congestion entrance bar opens and begins to form, 6/1 down and strong resistance at the Pldot being back-up.
Then if the SFT set up occurs later, it is time for a 2nd trade for this congestion entrance bar.
Re: Lesson 26
Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:08 pm
by ted
Yes. can be done that way.