I am plodding through Lesson #9 and I have a question.
The focus time period is arbitrary, based on what time period I want to trade.
How come we don't look for the specific time period and / or contract month that drives the commodity in question?
In other words there is usually an optimal time period/ contract month which drives the geometry for a particular commodity. Granted it would not be the same for all contracts but if we found the driver, chances are our methodology would be much more accurate.
JA
Lesson 9
Re: Lesson 9
That is a really interesting question....
As it turns out for the most part we choose the focus time period by whim, which is to say by personal needs of the moment, or of the season. When needing or desiring to trade short term, for reasons relating to current interests in life or other demands, then so be it. Or for longer term choices such as quarterly or yearly, they often come into play when life demands that one not be so close to the screen on a constant basis. In other words, once can choose that the market bow to one's own personality and life circumstances, and not vice versa.
However the idea that the market -- or each individual market -- has an "optimal" timeframe that demands its own dominance is an interesting concept. the question would be... What is the constant that one would apply to determine this optimal timeframe or contract month? Might indeed be a fruitful inquiry.
Which timeframe is "driving" the market in any given moment shifts depending on which group of traders is investing or divesting capital at the time. These groups of people are driven by the imperatives of the suppoprt and resistance levels, which seem to be built into the way people think, by virtue of the degrees of discomfort that arise when individuals move away from the conventionally established norms. Maybe there is some way to measure the relative strength of short-term traders in the S&P for example, as oppose to the Eurodollar marekt. etc. But I am not sure what that measure should be, or if one is found, if it would fit me...
Would be interested in where this train of thought takes you.
As it turns out for the most part we choose the focus time period by whim, which is to say by personal needs of the moment, or of the season. When needing or desiring to trade short term, for reasons relating to current interests in life or other demands, then so be it. Or for longer term choices such as quarterly or yearly, they often come into play when life demands that one not be so close to the screen on a constant basis. In other words, once can choose that the market bow to one's own personality and life circumstances, and not vice versa.
However the idea that the market -- or each individual market -- has an "optimal" timeframe that demands its own dominance is an interesting concept. the question would be... What is the constant that one would apply to determine this optimal timeframe or contract month? Might indeed be a fruitful inquiry.
Which timeframe is "driving" the market in any given moment shifts depending on which group of traders is investing or divesting capital at the time. These groups of people are driven by the imperatives of the suppoprt and resistance levels, which seem to be built into the way people think, by virtue of the degrees of discomfort that arise when individuals move away from the conventionally established norms. Maybe there is some way to measure the relative strength of short-term traders in the S&P for example, as oppose to the Eurodollar marekt. etc. But I am not sure what that measure should be, or if one is found, if it would fit me...
Would be interested in where this train of thought takes you.