A few questions/ comments.
Accumulation/distribution is visually represented by the closes &/or the PL dots going horizontal correct?
As far as being able to see patterns, sure I see things, but essentially I feel that the setups are being presented somewhat one-sided because I can rationalize support and resistance for both directions simultaneously.
As usually, we have a 5/1, 5/2 5/9 etc., creating support or resistance on both sides of a prospective bar at the same time.
The 1-1 envelope helps a bit since the premise is that we will be going to the other side but without it is much more nebulous.
Lastly, I noticed that frequently, at turning points, as the accumulation or distribution occurrs, a large spike occurs. While I have not gotten to the trading part yet, it cetainly appears that they can throw a wrench in the works, as opposed to the orderly turns (which seems to occur less than 50% of the time).
JA
Accumulation and Distribution
Re: Accumulation and Distribution
====well, there's more to it than that. Flow also deals with range, position of highs and lows, position of close, separation of close and open or previous close, and degree of progress towards a goal as measured against the envelope matrix. Lesson 27.
====and you should be seeing both sides of the question as it exists at any given moment. There will of course be evidence for both directions existing at any given time. But it is not a question of "rationalizing" the case but of assessing the objective evidence for each side, and what *has to happen* in objective observable terms if one scenario is going to play out versus the other.
==yes, and you are then looking to a lower time period to see what is happening...
==the envelope system is very helpful, yes indeed, since it gives a constant against which movement can be measured. But it is not simply a matter of always expecting movement from one side of the envelope to the other. That will get you some distance along the road, especially during times of anticipated congestion, but will kill you in trend runs, when things act quite differently and the envelope system along with all other support/resistance tools are managed in a different way.
===Spikes can be and are in fact incredibly valuable trading tools as they frequently mark exhausts, and we have a well-defined method for taking advantage of them, and permitting entry and/or exits at points that can approximate the extreme itself, as opposed to waiting until the movement is long past and you are playing catch-up ball. The keys as you will learn in later lessons have to do with (to take the example of an upside move and reversal to the downside) breaking through nearby resistance and stopping in furtherout resistance, and then subsequent nearby resistance holding in the next bar, most especially when this occurs as a move into a significant higher time period point of resistance, and within a recognizable higher time period move itself. These situations are not at all uncommon.
====and you should be seeing both sides of the question as it exists at any given moment. There will of course be evidence for both directions existing at any given time. But it is not a question of "rationalizing" the case but of assessing the objective evidence for each side, and what *has to happen* in objective observable terms if one scenario is going to play out versus the other.
==yes, and you are then looking to a lower time period to see what is happening...
==the envelope system is very helpful, yes indeed, since it gives a constant against which movement can be measured. But it is not simply a matter of always expecting movement from one side of the envelope to the other. That will get you some distance along the road, especially during times of anticipated congestion, but will kill you in trend runs, when things act quite differently and the envelope system along with all other support/resistance tools are managed in a different way.
===Spikes can be and are in fact incredibly valuable trading tools as they frequently mark exhausts, and we have a well-defined method for taking advantage of them, and permitting entry and/or exits at points that can approximate the extreme itself, as opposed to waiting until the movement is long past and you are playing catch-up ball. The keys as you will learn in later lessons have to do with (to take the example of an upside move and reversal to the downside) breaking through nearby resistance and stopping in furtherout resistance, and then subsequent nearby resistance holding in the next bar, most especially when this occurs as a move into a significant higher time period point of resistance, and within a recognizable higher time period move itself. These situations are not at all uncommon.
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Trader Question
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Re: Accumulation and Distribution
One other thing.
If the LTP is at the PL dot of the next HTP how do you determine if there is accumulation, and it will go up, or distribution, and it will go down?
The patterns are basically the same and without a HTP offering support or resistance we have no way to know if it will go one way or the other (ignoring any 5/1, 5/2,5/9's etc ).
JA
If the LTP is at the PL dot of the next HTP how do you determine if there is accumulation, and it will go up, or distribution, and it will go down?
The patterns are basically the same and without a HTP offering support or resistance we have no way to know if it will go one way or the other (ignoring any 5/1, 5/2,5/9's etc ).
JA
Re: Accumulation and Distribution
If the HTP dot (or other significant HTP element) is to hold it will show characteristic patterns on the LTP and if it will break it will show patterns and flow indicting the reverse. These take a bit of time to get used to and there will be more on this later in the course. If the market turns down, the LTP flow will turn down first, and this will show up through nearby resistance holding and nearby support breaking on the LTP, and other elements of flow as detailed in Lesson on flow. There generally is a significant expectation set up in the HTP movement which gives a bias, which is then monitored as to its reality on the LTP... it either happens or it doesn't, and these signs can be read and acted upon. The up or down patterns are not basically the same but will have distinguishing characteristics that will become clearer to you if they are not immediately obvious now. But the advice also is: if you don't know what is happening, then don't trade/stand aside until you do know and can see it. Not every set up is instantly clear; some are more obvious and stronger than others.