The Drummond Geometry Forum

I am confused about the direction of bonds right now and was hoping for some guidance on the flow. Since the daily has moved into congestion, I am not sure which exit direction should be anticipated since there are reasonable energy areas around both the block and the dotted line. On top, the block is near the Wkly EB and Mthly PLDot - and there could be a possible Mthly PLDot push down? However, the dotted line near the Qtrly EB appears to be accumulating well over the past few days also.

On the intraday, it looks like upflow was decent from 1/26 to midday 2/1 as support moved to Daily EB and then Daily PLDot, but then failed to close above Daily Dot on 2/1 - questioning the strength of daily support and causing me to be concerned about the Mthly PLDot push down.

Just looking for guidance on sorting out the arguments. I am wondering if buying the Daily dotted line is warranted, with the possibility of Mthly PLDot push down - or if i is a bad risk/reward.


JG

Sometimes when the market is waiting for news or is in some other uncertain state, and when there is roughly equal energy at both support and resistance, then the boundaries of congestion both hold strongly and we have a static period. The flow on focus and lower time periods may not give a lot of hints. When you can't tell direction, then don't trade.

The intraday (1200 tk) doesn't really give you much help her either as it shows a normal congestion cycling from daily support to daily resistance with normal flow in both directions for the past few days. Note that the daily pldot comes back to the center of the chart and moves sideways, horizontally, and we have intraday exhausts in both directions as the intraday cycles complete themselves.

In this period, congestion action trading is OK if you want to take intraday positions, and play the cycles. But if you are looking for longer term trades I would look to the HTP for guidance and watch for those patterns to play out. On the weekly we are seeing an exhaust down turning into a pldot refresh to the upside; on the monthly we see congestion which would support that idea. On the quarterly so far we are seeing a pldot push to the downside just starting to encounter some quarterly resistance, but on the yearly there is nothing but air below us until we get other yearly Pldot. Anything can happen in the markets but I would see long terms potential to the downside after a possible weekly dot refresh. How this scenario might be traded is a matter for personal trading style to determine, and the truth or error in this analysis will be revealed by the lower time periods as the projected scenario unfolds or fails to unfold as expected.

It is not uncommon for Bonds to wait for news to react to, and then move to fulfill the P&L patterns; as I recall there is a big number coming out this morning?