The Drummond Geometry Forum

For TY next week: is an exhaust setting up? The monthly seems to show support and so does the weekly but the daily seems to be exhibiting some resistance perhaps continuing on to Wednesday/Thursday to form a C-wave on Friday? I have a document that I put together as part of my personal research and wanted to post it here. Is that allowed in this forum? I would be very interested in validating my conclusions.
My gut feeling is that the next couple of weeks seem be setting the market for significant movement, and I know that "gut feeling" has no place for a pler. Old habits and their demise..

For ES: the pattern seems to be a sort of a reflection: support on Tuesday. Any input will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Dinkar

During personal research, I found that the support for TS was going to return to the weekly but the daily showed resistance: using both the Drummond envelope and the zones. The trend that i anticipated, or was that an exhaust, was lost : meaning, that I placed a limit about 4 ticks higher for the daily anticipated high and 4 ticks lower than the daily low.

My question is this:With the conceptual understanding of drummond envelope, would it make more sense to try to limit each trade's return to between 100 - 150% to play safe and grow profits? I mean, this is not a small return and i find that this method seems to make the process of anticipation quite objective although, I am currently having following hurdles to deal with:
1. Of course the lack of knowledge of what is in store lesson 7 onwards.
2. Solid understanding of the lines themselves. Did I miss the obvious down trends, supports or is the congestion action real etc. These doubts result in my second guessing and closing a position early or holding on to a position longer than needed.
3. Proper understanding of the HTP,LTP analyses. This is obviously the most critical part of the analysis and something that I still need to get a greater handle on.
4. Finally, all these trades are in the simulated account. I realise that the true psychology does not get tested in a simulated trade. In your opinion, when should a student feel comfortable to go into the real world. Will there be an "aha" moment, a la, "you are your own teacher" moment?

Can a student with some additional analysis and reviewe of the lessons 1 - 6 anticipate the correct price points?
Any pointers will greatly help. In the meantime, back to the exercises. The exercises are quite well thought out. Though, this was not obvious to me until I had TS and the indicators installed to actually see the walk forward analysis.
Thanks,

Assessing the strength of a move and whether or not the price action will fulfill the geometry to the tick depends of a lot of factors -- certainly Lessons 8 and 9 on lines holding and breaking will help you a lot; you also need to be able to assess the quality of the flow on one ore more lower time periods. Guidance on these points in found in various lessons as you proceed through the course. But as you progress then your suggestion of pulling back a but and taking profits earlier int he move, leaving some money on the table but increasing your take over all, makes a lot of sense.